Sudan, The Road To Dismantling

Once the largest country in Africa, covering approximately 2.5 million square kilometres, Sudan has endured decades of internal conflicts, civil war, authoritarian rule, and international interference. It contains a vast amount of ethnic and religious diversity, which makes it internally fragile and geopolitically significant, making it difficult to unite its people under a common goal and form a national identity. Conflicts in the region have torn the nation apart, resulting in the formation of the newest country in the world, South Sudan, in July 2011. 

Roots of the Division

The division dates back to the country’s colonial and post-colonial structures. Under Anglo-Egyptian rule, the nation was administered separately; the North was more integrated with the Arab world, whereas the South was largely isolated, operating under British administrative influence with a significant Christian presence in the region (Collins, 2008). Sudan’s independence in 1956 saw the two regions joining together despite no national reconciliation or equitable distribution of power, planting the roots of fragility and future fragmentation. 

Following independence, Sudan was unable to build a cohesive identity, with the governments in Khartoum often dominated by Islamic elites, imposing cultural and political dominance over the South, which had a vastly different dynamic. Discrimination against minorities became rooted in the country, which led to great levels of resentment and laid the foundation for rebellion (Johnson, 2016). 

Nimeiry and the Rise in Conflict

Gaafar Nimeiry’s presidency (1969-1985) marked a turning point in Sudanese disunity. Under his rule, the country leaned towards more authoritarian policies to consolidate power. In 1972, the Addis Ababa agreement ended the first Sudanese civil war (1955-1972), granting the south limited autonomy (Woodward, 1990). However, in 1983, Sharia Law was adopted across the country, known as the September Laws, which nullified the agreement and isolated the non-Muslim south. In that same year, the second Sudanese Civil War broke out, which was led by John Garang, who led the Sudan People’s Liberation Party (SPLA) (Warburg, 1990).

These events reflected the regime’s failure to govern effectively due to the extreme religious authoritarianism which plagued the country. Social unrest was further fueled due to economic stagnation and political exclusion, with the government unable to provide any basic services for its people, undermining any sense of unity (de Waal, 2007). During this period, inflation exceeded 40% by 1984, living standards declined dramatically, and foreign debt grew from around $800 million in 1970 to an enormous $9 billion in 1985, which at the time was one of the highest debt-to-GDP ratios in Africa (World Bank, 1985), despite being a very rich country in resources such as gold and oil.

From Nationalism to Despotism under Omar-al-Bashir

After Nimeiry was overthrown and exiled in 1985 by his own defence minister, Sudan undertook a brief democratic experiment which quickly turned into another military coup in 1989, bringing Omar al-Bashir into power. Bashir was backed by the National Islamic Front, which allowed him to further deepen the Islamification of the state and consolidate power through a tightly controlled military regime. Under his rule, many in the South confirmed that coexistence with a unified Sudan was impossible due to the regime’s policies, primarily due to the influence of the National Congress Party (NCP) (Pachodo, 2012).

Bashir’s repression was not only targeted towards the south. In the early 2000s, his government armed Arab militias, most notably the Janjaweed, to stop a rebellion in Darfur, leading to one of the worst humanitarian crises according to the United Nations, and subsequently an arrest warrant in 2009 from the International Criminal Court (ICC) on charges of war crimes and genocide, the first head of state to face such charges (Prosecutor v Hassan Ahmad Al-Bashir (Omar), 2009). 

By this point, the idea of Sudanese nationalism had eroded. Systemic discrimination, economic failure, and the centralisation of power in Khartoum pushed the South closer to secession and fractured the nation’s identity (Young, 2012).

The Creation of South Sudan

In 2005, the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) ended more than two decades of civil war, which guaranteed a referendum in the South for self-determination. In 2011, South Sudan officially declared independence, backed by Western powers, particularly the United States (BBC, 2011).

Although the separation was celebrated by many, it dealt a severe blow to Sudan’s economy. The South held nearly 75% of the nation’s oil reserves, which deprived the North of its main source of revenue. Economic crisis instantly followed the independence of South Sudan, renewing political instability even further. Sudan’s underlying tensions did not cease then either. The continuing authoritarian rule and ethnic conflict meant that the only difference was that the problems persisted within a smaller and weaker state. 

New Conflicts, Old Patterns

After Omar al-Bashir was ousted in 2019 due to widespread protests over the mismanagement of the country, many hoped his downfall would lead to improved living conditions; however, the situation quickly deteriorated and was hijacked by military factions. The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, emerged as the de facto leader of Sudan. However, his control was uneasily contested by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, well known as Hemedti, the commander of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a militia which continued the Janjaweed’s practices and was particularly interested in the gold trade (Global Witness, 2019). 

In April 2023, tensions between Burhan and Hemedti erupted into a full-scale civil war, which is still ongoing. Millions have been displaced since, and Khartoum looks like a former shadow of itself. Many human rights violations have taken place since then, with atrocities circulating on social media (Amnesty International, 2023).

The Battle for Darfur

Whilst most of the world’s attention is on Khartoum, West Sudan has emerged as a potential flashpoint. Despite it being strategically located as it borders several countries and is filled with rich resources such as gold, the region is still politically neglected and marginalised by central authorities.  

Hemedti’s influence has grown considerably since the civil war and he is consolidating power in the region, exchanging resources, including gold, with foreign countries, such as the United Arab Emirates, in exchange for military support. The gold industry has become the “lifeblood of the civil war”, much of which has been channelled through the UAE (Khansa, M. 2025). 

If the current situation persists, West Sudan is very likely to follow the path of South Sudan by seceding. The situation mirrors that of the South due to the combination of economic importance, political neglect, and ethnic diversity (Al Jazeera, 2024). Such a development would destroy the already weakened Sudanese state, drawing in potential regional actors that are interested in the Red Sea and its trade routes (such as Russia and the UAE) and potentially redrawing the map. 

The Humanitarian Crises and Foreign Interference 

Given these conditions, which have plagued the country since its independence, Sudan is facing one of the worst Humanitarian Crises to date. By early 2025, over 30 million people are estimated to require urgent humanitarian assistance, over half of whom are children (Sudan, 2024). Camps have been overcrowded with minimal services, and humanitarian aid has been delayed or even blocked to use starvation as a war tactic.

Foreign actors such as the UAE have benefited from this war and are even complicit in the active war crimes within Sudan. It has been claimed that the UAE is backing the RSF of Hemedti as it is a key destination for Sudanese gold, much of which is mined in conflict-affected areas such as Darfur (Foreign Policy Research Institute, 2025). 

The involvement of the UAE has led to a prolongation in fighting due to their supplying of arms for gold, allowing militias to finance themselves and embolden other factions to impose sieges and seize territory. A video circulating shows Qisma Ali Omar, a young Sudanese woman from Central Darfur, being tortured with her arms bound and her body hanging from a tree, who was eventually killed by an RSF soldier (France 24, 2025). Countries such as the UAE become richer because of war crimes like these. They use blood to expand their economies, and it is a shame that news outlets have rarely spoken out on these atrocities. 

Events like these show just how fragmented the state of Sudan is. After decades of authoritarianism, inequality, religious intolerance, and foreign interference, the problems have culminated in the failure of an inclusive state. Unless Sudan’s leaders and the international community prioritise secular political reform and prevent foreign interference from contributing to the slaughter of their own people to finance a war, the nation’s integrity may be lost entirely. What was once Africa’s largest state now faces the largest dismantling of a nation in the modern era. 

Bibliography

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